Climate change is not a distant threat. It is here, reshaping our lives and livelihoods. Record-breaking wildfires, flash floods, rising seas, and the water scarcity seen in parts of Scotland this year all point to the new reality of increasing climate instability. These impacts cost lives, disrupt communities, and damage our economy.

The question is not whether we adapt, but how much, and how fast.

That is why the Scottish and UK Governments’ climate advisory body, the Climate Change Committee (CCC), recently published advice to answer a crucial question: what climate assumptions should guide our long-term adaptation plans? In other words, what future climate should we prepare for, and how do we set long-term objectives that genuinely deliver the climate resilience we need?

The CCC’s response was clear and urgent. We need to plan for a world that is at least 2°C warmer by 2050. For decisions or projects that need to stand the test of time for longer than 25 years, we need to consider the possibility of even higher warming, up to 4°C by the end of the century.

Why does this matter? Clarity drives action. Without a shared understanding of what lies ahead, there is a real risk of setting vague objectives that fail to protect people and places. The CCC’s advice provides a clear time horizon: 2050. It tells us the minimum level of risk we must prepare for and warns us to consider worse outcomes beyond 2050. This clarity allows policymakers to set priorities, businesses to invest wisely, and communities to think through what resilience will really mean over the coming decades.

The Highland region is on the front line of the changing climate. We have roughly 21 per cent of Scotland’s coastline with hundreds of island and coastal communities highly exposed to sea level rise, storms, and erosion. That exposure also matters economically: fishing, whisky, agriculture, commercial forestry, energy, and tourism all depend on reliable water, secure supply chains, and resilient transport infrastructure.

Getting climate adaptation right is vital for a thriving Highland region.

A well-adapted Scotland is not only about surviving storms and heatwaves. It is about keeping hospitals running during extreme weather, protecting food supplies, looking after vulnerable populations, and ensuring cities and towns are resilient to more hot and dry days as well as heavier rainfall and greater flood risk.

The CCC’s advice is both a wake-up call and an opportunity. By setting clear long-term objectives grounded in science, we can build and maintain the homes, infrastructure, and services that will withstand future climate extremes.

Climate adaptation will affect everyone: households, public institutions, and private businesses. Understanding where we are exposed to climate risks is a sensible first step, and there is considerable support available. Adaptation Scotland offers practical information on how Scotland’s climate is changing and what actions individuals and organisations can take. To see what 2°C warmer in 2050 may look like in your area, the Met Office has a useful tool that allows you to enter your postcode and see projections for local climate conditions in 2050 and beyond.

As we move forward, the CCC’s guidance provides clarity we have lacked until now. The next step is to commit to doing the hard work together. The Highland Adapts partnership is an important part of that work. By bringing together organisations with a stake in climate resilience, we support regional adaptation that is coordinated, inclusive, and effective across the region.

On 11 December, we will host the final workshop of the first Highland Climate Change Risk and Opportunity Assessment. Fifty people from across the region will come together to look ahead to 2050 and beyond. We will consider the impacts of at least 2°C warming by 2050 and the possibility of even higher warming, up to 4°C by the end of the century. We will then work together to prioritise the most important risks and opportunities for the region. The full assessment will interpret the available evidence on climate impacts for the Highland context. The assessment is set to be published in February, and we look forward to sharing it with you then.