H2: Risks to people from extreme weather, excluding heat
Riosgan do dhaoine bho fhìor dhroch shìde, gun a bhith a’ gabhail a-steach teas
This risk concerns the direct and indirect impacts of extreme weather events, such as flooding, storms, and drought, on the health, wellbeing, and safety of people in the Highland region.
Current Level of Risk (2025)
High
Future Level of Risk (2050s/2080s)
High
Urgency
Yes
Priority for regional collaboration?
Yes
Confidence in Current Evidence
Confidence in the overall direction and scale of risk is high, as findings are consistent across UK-level analyses and observed local impacts. Confidence in regional detail is moderate, as Highland-specific data are sparse and require further monitoring and health-focused research to refine local risk assessment.
Known Evidence and Knowledge Gaps
There is robust evidence that flooding and storms cause physical injury, mental health impacts, and service disruption, while drought threatens water quality and sanitation. However, evidence specific to the Highland region is limited, with few regionally specific health impact studies, and gaps remain in data on private water supply vulnerability, rural care disruption, and cumulative health outcomes from repeated events.
Overview
Extreme weather poses growing risks to people across the Highland region, driven by more frequent flooding, storms, and drought. These events affect physical and mental health through injury, contamination of private water supplies, disruption to health and care services, and long-term psychological distress. Rural isolation, ageing populations, and socioeconomic inequality heighten vulnerability. While adaptation measures such as flood management strategies and emergency planning are in place, progress remains uneven, particularly for remote communities and private water users. Future climate projections indicate increasing rainfall extremes and storm intensity, with associated health and well-being impacts likely to deepen. Strengthening community resilience, safeguarding water and power infrastructure, and embedding prevention and equity in regional planning could reduce harm and improve health security across the Highlands.
What is the current level of risk?
Communities across the Highland region are experiencing health and well-being risks from extreme weather events, particularly flooding, storms, heavy snowfall, and drought-related water scarcity. Flooding poses a persistent threat to both physical and mental health, with impacts including injury, waterborne infection, contamination of private water supplies, and long-term psychological distress among affected households.[1],[2] Flood-related mental health impacts, including anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress disorder, have been documented as the most significant long-term health outcomes of extreme weather in UK contexts. In the Highland region, dispersed rural populations, extensive reliance on private water supplies (over 10,000 residents and many more visitors in holiday accommodation), and limited access to emergency services exacerbate vulnerability.[3],[4]
Severe storms and high winds cause injuries, power outages, and travel disruption, which can interrupt health and care provision in isolated communities.[5] Prolonged dry periods and drought can reduce water quality, impacting hygiene, sanitation, and agricultural livelihoods.[6] The physical remoteness of many Highland communities, combined with ageing demographics and deprivation, compounds exposure to these hazards and limits recovery capacity.[7] During Storm Floris, for example, winds of 82 mph in Wick left around 43,500 homes across Scotland without power. At the same time, planes, trains, and ferries were cancelled, demonstrating how quickly essential services and connectivity can be severed during extreme weather events.[8]
What is the future level of risk?
The Highland region is projected to experience more frequent and intense extreme weather events in the 2050s and 2080s, with wetter winters, heavier rainfall, and more powerful storms, alongside prolonged dry periods and summer droughts.[9] These changes are expected to heighten health and well-being risks, particularly for older adults and people in rural or coastal areas.[10] Increased rainfall will elevate flood risk in river catchments such as the Ness, Beauly, and Wick, with direct health consequences including injury, contamination of private water sources, and displacement.[11] Figure H2 shows significant increases in the number of people living in areas at flood risk in the Highland region in the 2050s and 2080s under two warming scenarios. Indirectly, flooding is expected to increase cases of anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress, with mental health impacts likely to persist long after physical recovery.[12]
Extreme cold–related health risks in the UK are expected to decline but not disappear under climate change, with warmer winters reducing the most severe cold exposures, yet persistent risks from moderate cold, exacerbated by an ageing population, deprivation, and poor-quality housing, remaining significant throughout the century.[13] This risk may be particularly impactful in the Highland regions, as the average temperature is cooler than much of the UK and the population is on average older than average in the UK. Between 2001 and 2024, the 0 to 15 age group saw the largest percentage decrease (-10.1%). The 75 and over age group saw the largest percentage increase (+78.1%).[14]
Future storm activity and high winds are likely to result in more frequent power outages and transport disruption, which can isolate vulnerable populations and interrupt the delivery of health and social care services, particularly in remote settlements.[15] Meanwhile, increases in summer drought frequency could threaten drinking water security, hygiene, and local food production.[16] The cumulative effect of these interacting hazards may deepen existing health inequalities across the region, disproportionately affecting low-income, older, and geographically isolated communities.[17]
Figure H2. The left-hand graph shows present-day risk (using 2021 as a baseline). The centre graph shows projected number of people at risk in 2050s on a pathway to 2°C global warming by the end of the century. The right-hand graph shows the projected number of people at risk in the 2080s on a pathway to 4°C global warming by the end of the century. Source: UK Climate Change Committee, (2021).
Is the risk being managed or adapted to?
The Highland region has made progress in managing risks to people from extreme weather, but adaptation remains uneven across sectors and communities. Flood risk management has received sustained attention through local strategies and the implementation of the Flood Risk Management (Scotland) Act, which promotes catchment-scale planning and community engagement. The Highland Council and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) have developed flood warning and mapping systems, while resilience groups in towns such as Dingwall and Golspie support local preparedness.[19],[20] However, gaps persist in the adaptation of private properties, health and care infrastructure, and dispersed rural settlements where maintenance of flood defences and drainage systems is limited.
Storm resilience has improved through coordinated emergency response planning and infrastructure investment, yet power networks and rural transport routes remain vulnerable to high winds and coastal impacts.[21] Drought planning and water security are less developed, with 10,000 inhabitants in Highland still reliant on unregulated private water supplies that are exposed to contamination and supply failure.[22],[23] Public health adaptation, such as mental health support after floods or preparedness for service disruptions, is predominately reactive. While the Scottish Government’s Population Health Framework 2025–2035 and the Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK report both emphasise prevention and equity, embedding these principles in practice across Highland communities requires further resources, coordination, and monitoring.[24],[25]
Are there benefits from further action in the next five years, over and above what is already planned?
Accelerating adaptation in the next five years could deliver benefits to public health, service resilience, and social wellbeing in the Highland region. Enhanced investment in local preparedness, particularly community-led resilience networks and early warning systems, would reduce injury and mental health impacts during and after flood and storm events.[26],[27] Strengthening public health coordination between NHS Highland, the Highland Council, and emergency services could help ensure continuity of care for isolated households during power or transport disruption, while targeted support for older adults and low-income families would reduce health inequalities exacerbated by extreme weather.[28]
Upgrading drainage, transport and power infrastructure would protect essential services. Incentivising household-level adaptation, such as flood protection measures and back-up energy systems, could improve individual safety and recovery capacity.[29] Strengthening drought resilience by monitoring and maintaining private water supplies could prevent waterborne illness and improve sanitation outcomes.[30] Embedding climate risk considerations in health and social care planning would reduce the costs of reactive response and deliver long-term health co-benefits, aligning with Scotland’s prevention-focused policy framework and supporting a fairer, more resilient Highland region.[31]
Cascading and Interacting Risks
Extreme weather events in the Highland region rarely occur in isolation and often trigger cascading impacts across health, infrastructure, and community wellbeing. Flooding can contaminate private water supplies, damage sanitation, and lead to outbreaks of gastrointestinal illness, while also disrupting power and transport systems that are vital for emergency response.[32] Storm-related infrastructure damage can isolate rural populations and delay medical treatment, compounding risks for those with existing health conditions.[33]
These physical disruptions frequently intersect with social and economic vulnerabilities. Households experiencing flood-related displacement or repeated storm damage face prolonged financial stress, which can exacerbate anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress disorder.[34] During recovery, strain on local health and care services limits capacity to support those affected, creating feedback loops of vulnerability. Drought impacts may also cascade into food insecurity and reduced water quality, particularly in crofting and agricultural communities reliant on small-scale water supplies.[35]
In combination, these hazards interact with demographic factors, such as the region’s ageing population and geographic isolation, to amplify the health burden and deepen inequalities across Highland communities.[36]
Options for regional collaboration
- Enhance monitoring and maintenance of private water supplies through joint programmes between environmental health teams, Scottish Water, and community trusts to safeguard water quality during drought and flood incidents.
- Invest collaboratively in resilient infrastructure including transport, energy, and digital connectivity to maintain health and care service continuity during storms and prolonged outages.
- Expand community resilience initiatives, providing resources for training, communication systems, and mental health support after extreme weather events.
References
[1] UK Health Security Agency, The UK Government, “Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK: State of the Evidence 2023” (GOV.UK, January 15, 2024), https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/climate-change-health-effects-in-the-uk.
[2] Dickinson N, Spencer LH, Yang S, Miller C, Hursthouse A, Lynch M. Extreme Weather Events in the UK and Resulting Public Health Outcomes. Int J Public Health. 2025 May 29;70:1607904. doi: 10.3389/ijph.2025.1607904. PMID: 40510033; PMCID: PMC12158791. Extreme Weather Events in the UK and Resulting Public Health Outcomes – PMC
[3] UK Health Security Agency, The UK Government, “Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK, Chapter 3: Climate Change, Flooding and Public Health” (GOV.UK, January 15, 2024), https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/climate-change-health-effects-in-the-uk.
[4] The Highland Council, “Introduction | Private Water Supplies | the Highland Council,” Highland.gov.uk, 2017, http://www.highland.gov.uk/site/scripts/documents_info.php?categoryID=1053&documentID=93.
[5] Bricheno, L.M., Woolf, D., Valiente, N.G., Makrygianni, N., Chowdhury, P., and Timmermans, B. Climate change impacts on storms and waves relevant to the UK and Ireland. MCCIP Science Review 2025, 24pp. DOI:10.14465/2025.reu09.str, Storms and waves_update_May 2025.pdf
[6] UK Health Security Agency, The UK Government, “Climate Change Health Effects in the UK, Chapter 11: Direct and Indirect Effects of Drought on Human Health” (GOV.UK, January 15, 2024), https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/climate-change-health-effects-in-the-uk.
[7] Population Health Directorate, The Scottish Government, “Scotland’s Population Health Framework” (GOV.SCOT, June 17, 2025), https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-population-health-framework/documents/.
[8] Joseph Kennedy, “What Comes after Storm Floris as the Highlands Begin to Recover,” The Highland Times, August 5, 2025, https://thehighlandtimes.com/what-comes-after-storm-floris-as-the-highlands-begin-to-recover/.
[9] Adaptation Scotland, “Climate Projections for Scotland: Summary” (Adaptation Scotland, 2021), https://adaptation.scot/app/uploads/2024/09/climate-projections-scotland-summary-dec21.pdf.
[10] UK Health Security Agency, The UK Government, “Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK: State of the Evidence 2023” (GOV.UK, January 15, 2024), https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/climate-change-health-effects-in-the-uk.
[11] The Highland Council, “Highland and Argyll Local Flood Risk Management Plan (2022 – 2028)” (The Highland Council, December 2022), https://www.highland.gov.uk/downloads/download/1231/flood_risk_management_plan.
[12] Dickinson N, Spencer LH, Yang S, Miller C, Hursthouse A, Lynch M. Extreme Weather Events in the UK and Resulting Public Health Outcomes. Int J Public Health. 2025 May 29;70:1607904. doi: 10.3389/ijph.2025.1607904. PMID: 40510033; PMCID: PMC12158791. Extreme Weather Events in the UK and Resulting Public Health Outcomes – PMC
[13] UK Health Security Agency, The UK Government, “Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK: State of the Evidence 2023” (GOV.UK, January 15, 2024), https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/climate-change-health-effects-in-the-uk.
[14] National Records of Scotland, “Council Area Profile: Highland,” National Records of Scotland (NRS) (National Records of Scotland, 2025), https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/council-area-profiles/highland/.
[15] Bricheno, L.M., Woolf, D., Valiente, N.G., Makrygianni, N., Chowdhury, P., and Timmermans, B. Climate change impacts on storms and waves relevant to the UK and Ireland. MCCIP Science Review 2025, 24pp. DOI:10.14465/2025.reu09.str, Storms and waves_update_May 2025.pdf
[16] UK Health Security Agency, The UK Government, “Climate Change Health Effects in the UK, Chapter 11: Direct and Indirect Effects of Drought on Human Health” (GOV.UK, January 15, 2024), https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/climate-change-health-effects-in-the-uk.
[17] Population Health Directorate, The Scottish Government, “Scotland’s Population Health Framework” (GOV.SCOT, June 17, 2025), https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-population-health-framework/documents/.
[18] CCC (2021). ‘Independent assessment of UK climate risk: advice to government for the UK’s third climate change risk assessment (CCRA3)’ https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Independent-Assessment-of-UK-Climate-Risk-Advice-to-Govt-for-CCRA3-CCC.pdf
[19] Scottish Environment Protection Agency, “The River Basin Management Plan for Scotland 2021 – 2027” (SEPA, December 2021), https://www.sepa.org.uk/environment/water/river-basin-management-planning/.
[20] The Highland Council, “Highland and Argyll Local Flood Risk Management Plan (2022 – 2028)” (The Highland Council, December 2022), https://www.highland.gov.uk/downloads/download/1231/flood_risk_management_plan.
[21] Bricheno, L.M., Woolf, D., Valiente, N.G., Makrygianni, N., Chowdhury, P., and Timmermans, B. Climate change impacts on storms and waves relevant to the UK and Ireland. MCCIP Science Review 2025, 24pp. DOI:10.14465/2025.reu09.str, Storms and waves_update_May 2025.pdf
[22] UK Health Security Agency, The UK Government, “Climate Change Health Effects in the UK, Chapter 11: Direct and Indirect Effects of Drought on Human Health” (GOV.UK, January 15, 2024), https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/climate-change-health-effects-in-the-uk.
[23] The Highland Council, “Introduction | Private Water Supplies | the Highland Council,” Highland.gov.uk, 2017, http://www.highland.gov.uk/site/scripts/documents_info.php?categoryID=1053&documentID=93.
[24] Population Health Directorate, The Scottish Government, “Scotland’s Population Health Framework” (GOV.SCOT, June 17, 2025), https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-population-health-framework/documents/.
[25] UK Health Security Agency, The UK Government, “Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK: State of the Evidence 2023” (GOV.UK, January 15, 2024), https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/climate-change-health-effects-in-the-uk.
[26] Fiona Charlson et al., “Climate Change and Mental Health: A Scoping Review,” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 9 (April 23, 2021): 4486, https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18094486.
[27] UK Health Security Agency, The UK Government, “Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK: State of the Evidence 2023” (GOV.UK, January 15, 2024), https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/climate-change-health-effects-in-the-uk.
[28] Population Health Directorate, The Scottish Government, “Scotland’s Population Health Framework” (GOV.SCOT, June 17, 2025), https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-population-health-framework/documents/.
[29] UK Health Security Agency, The UK Government, “Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK, Chapter 3: Climate Change, Flooding and Public Health” (GOV.UK, January 15, 2024), https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/climate-change-health-effects-in-the-uk.
[30] UK Health Security Agency, The UK Government, “Climate Change Health Effects in the UK, Chapter 11: Direct and Indirect Effects of Drought on Human Health” (GOV.UK, January 15, 2024), https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/climate-change-health-effects-in-the-uk.
[31] Population Health Directorate, The Scottish Government, “Scotland’s Population Health Framework” (GOV.SCOT, June 17, 2025), https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-population-health-framework/documents/.
[32] UK Health Security Agency, The UK Government, “Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK, Chapter 3: Climate Change, Flooding and Public Health” (GOV.UK, January 15, 2024), https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/climate-change-health-effects-in-the-uk.
[33] Bricheno, L.M., Woolf, D., Valiente, N.G., Makrygianni, N., Chowdhury, P., and Timmermans, B. Climate change impacts on storms and waves relevant to the UK and Ireland. MCCIP Science Review 2025, 24pp. DOI:10.14465/2025.reu09.str, Storms and waves_update_May 2025.pdf
[34] Dickinson N, Spencer LH, Yang S, Miller C, Hursthouse A, Lynch M. Extreme Weather Events in the UK and Resulting Public Health Outcomes. Int J Public Health. 2025 May 29;70:1607904. doi: 10.3389/ijph.2025.1607904. PMID: 40510033; PMCID: PMC12158791. Extreme Weather Events in the UK and Resulting Public Health Outcomes – PMC
[35] UK Health Security Agency, The UK Government, “Climate Change Health Effects in the UK, Chapter 11: Direct and Indirect Effects of Drought on Human Health” (GOV.UK, January 15, 2024), https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/climate-change-health-effects-in-the-uk.
[36] Population Health Directorate, The Scottish Government, “Scotland’s Population Health Framework” (GOV.SCOT, June 17, 2025), https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-population-health-framework/documents/.
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Key Definitions
For the HCCROA, the terms risk and opportunity are used in specific ways. Risk refers to the potential for climate change to cause harm to people, nature, buildings, infrastructure, and communities. Opportunity refers to the potential for climate change to alter conditions in ways that could be advantageous for certain activities, sectors, or places in the Highland region, relative to current conditions. These opportunities may arise alongside significant risks and do not offset or negate them.
The assessment also highlights a second kind of opportunity: opportunities for action. The HCCROA refers to options for regional collaboration, which are distinct from opportunities arising directly from climate change. Greater benefits may be realised from coordinated action to reduce risks than from relying on limited advantages associated with changing climate conditions themselves.
Mental Health
Climate change is a difficult topic to engage with, and Highland Adapts appreciates that this report presents potentially upsetting information. Visit the Highland Mental Wellbeing website to learn about mental health services, information, and training available in the Highland region.
Project Funding and Disclaimers
Core Highland Adapts funding is provided by its partner organisations. The HCCROA was partially funded by the Scottish Government’s Climate Ready Regions Grant. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Scottish Government. Its members, servants or agents accept no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained herein.
The HCCROA is a product of the Highland Adapts partnership, conducted with support from Joseph Perry Consulting, Highland Adapts partner organisations, and other regional and national contributors. The analysis, findings, and conclusions presented in the HCCROA do not necessarily reflect the views of Highland Adapts partner organisations. The HCCROA is provided for general information and should not be regarded as a substitute for professional or technical advice. Highland Adapts, Joseph Perry Consulting, the report authors, and report contributors accept no responsibility for any loss or damage arising from the use or interpretation of information contained within the HCCROA.